We have an $50K / $18 Entry / $10K to first Showdown on our hands today, with Leicester hosting Manchester United.
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ODDS
Manchester Utd (+110) are slight road favorites against Leicester (+235).
Both teams scoring is very likely:
Leicester over 0.5 goals (-360)
United over 0.5 goals (-650)
Unless planning for an unlikely game-script, goalkeepers are out of contention.
CPT OPTIONS
For me, all CPT must have a route to a ceiling performance.
James Maddison ($11,600) - Unsure if he'll be fit to start. But, he'll have the highest floor on the slate if so.
Cristiano Ronaldo ($10,800) - May finally get a start. Highest goal upside in the match. Marcus Rashford ($8,600) has not looked good, but is a viable CPT if he starts up front instead of Ronaldo.
Bruno Fernandes ($10,200) - United's best player and owns the highest all around goal/assist upside.
Christian Eriksen ($9,400) - Highest floor on the slate assuming Maddison doesn't start. Casemiro in the team gives Eriksen more room to roam freely in the attack.
Jamie Vardy ($9,000) - Has looked like a shell of himself so far this season, but loves big matches. +130 to score anytime.
Ayoze Perez ($4,800) - Set piece share if Tielemans and Maddison both sit. Chances he subs off is high, but he's cheap enough to consider at CPT in that perfect scenario.
FLEX OPTIONS
High on - Eriksen, Ronaldo, Fernandes, Maddison/Vardy exposure
BONUS: There's a lot up in the air. Perez (if Maddison and Tielemans sit), Dewsbury-Hall (if Maddison sits), Iheanacho (if starting)
Low on - Dalot, Malacia, goalkeepers from both sides, Barnes
Casemiro in the lineup mean both Eriksen and Fernandes can roam freely. This hurts MU fullbacks, who will be instructed to tuck in defensively instead of joining the attack.
GPP STRATEGY (Stack ideas)
To win big, it's important for us to find ways to be different. Leaving salary is one. Let's hit on some quick stack ideas.
CPT Christian Eriksen, Cristiano Ronaldo, Jamie Vardy - Both teams scoring is a likely outcome. If that's the case, there's a good chance these are the main players involved. Eriksen CPT is my preferred 'main lineup' build.
CPT Cristiano Ronaldo, Marcus Rashford, James Maddison - If MU play well, which is a big if, I'd expect Ronaldo to get on the scoresheet. Maddison in correlation when Leicester are forced to push numbers forward.
CPT Jamie Vardy, Harvey Barnes, Ayoze Perez - We've seen United be crushed on the road before (re: against Brentford). I think this scenario is unlikely with Casemiro in the lineup now, but it's one worth considering. Wouldn't mind using a United fullback in this script along with Bruno or Eriksen.
CPT Bruno Fernandes, Christian Eriksen, James Maddison, David de Gea - The least likely script is a dull United CS/W, but it's in the range of outcomes. Both teams struggle to break through for a long time, giving Eriksen, Maddison, and Bruno all time to put up a solid DFS performance.
I'll be in the discord chat tomorrow with some updates, a Q&A session, and my final thoughts on the slate.
Don't miss it.
Let's win some money,
T
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